Policy Implications of the East Mediterranean Security Situation

Abstract

We contend that the end of the Cold War has led to a fragmented world with the demise of the old bi-polar order of the US and USSR. We suggest the world system is more unstable with the absolute power of the US declining even though we live in a "Unipolar world in transition." We posit a set of concentric "levels": a world level, a regional level impinging upon the Eastern Mediterranean, and a "local" level which "vibrates" to the tones from the world and regional levels.

We suggest resolution of the problems between Greece and Turkey requires a ''Big Package" detente comparable to that developed in the 1930s by Venizelos and Ataturk.

We review the mistakes of the state and sub-state actors in the Eastern Med. We argue that the US has learned from its earlier mistakes and that under both Clinton and Bush administrations, bipartisan US policy has been to support the UN's proposed "bizonal-bicommunal" [biz-bic] federation for Cyprus.

Lastly we ask what will happen to the Eastern Med when the Republic of Cyprus is admitted as a sovereign state to the European Union. We look at three scenarios Ankara may select - Status Quo, Annexation, or EU Fulfilment - and analyse each in terms of its effect on the Eastern Med.