Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean Security Problems: New Developments - Old Problems

Abstract

We posit a former 'Loose Bipolar Model II' prior to the end of the Cold War now temporarily replaced by a 'unipolar' model with the US as sole remaining superpower. This unipolar system is clearly in transition and unstable as the absolute power of the US declines even as its military power increases. We further posit a set of concentric 'levels': a world, a regional, and a 'local' level.

Why is Cyprus important geopolitically? Because of its location and propinquity to two metropoles: Greece and Turkey. Thus Cyprus serves as an 'anchor' which has dragged Athens and Ankara to the brink of war. Thus rapprochement between Athens and Ankara has trumped abstract justice for Cyprus as viewed from both capitals. But it failed to persuade Greek Cypriots who opted for 'half a loaf' policy: safe entry into the European Union as preferable to the terms offered by the UN on 24 April 2004. They saw the Annan Plans (I-V) as tilting too far to the Turkish Pole. The Turkish Cypriots supported the Referendum for its economic and political advantages of reunification and improved living standards.

With the Greek Republic of Cyprus in the EU and the Turkish Cypriots left out, Ankara will have to decide which of three routes it will follow: Status quo, Annexation, or Renegotiation of Annan Plan V and the security situation in the Eastern Mediterranean. We believe the AKP-led government will choose renegotiation as part of its Kemalist yet moderate Muslim stance. Yet despite its remarkable rapprochement with Greece and reforms to join the EU, Cyprus remains a thorn in it's and the EU's side. The stringent changes required for EU membership may yet destabilise it. Those changes will necessarily  include a  fairer distribution of power between Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots since Cyprus is neither Switzerland nor Belgium. We hope the major powers and Athens will help.