##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

Filippos Proedrou

Abstract

Recent gas discoveries off Cyprus have elevated tensions and created an energy and security complex in the Eastern Mediterranean. While the mainstream understanding of this complex focuses on energy as a zero-sum game that will be played out in accordance with geopolitical alliances and dividing lines, this paper aims to counter this view. It considers energy as a critical issue that can be positively utilised within the framework of integrated markets  and interdependence and as a positive-sum game. It also regards it a potential game changer that can propel a chain of conciliatory moves. The analysis culminates with the designation of three scenarios in which this complex can evolve. It concludes that it is up to the main actors, on the basis of their particular conceptualisation of the issues at hand, to determine whether energy will be used in a conflictive or assuaging way, deteriorating tensions in the region, or, alternatively, making energy a crucial pillar of stabilisation and rapprochement.

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

gas, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Israel, energy security, Exclusive Economic Zone, Normative foreign policy

References
Benner, T., de Oliveira, R.S. and Kalinke, F. (2010) ‘The Good/Bad Nexus in Global Energy Governance’, in Goldthau, A. and Witte, J.M. (eds), Global Energy Governance: The New Rules of the Game. Berlin: Global Public Policy Institute, pp. 287–317.

Boon von Ochssãee, T., Van der Linde, C., Meijknecht, J. and Smeenk, T. (2010) ‘Competition and Cooperation of Economic Agents in Natural Resource Markets: A Dynamic Market Theory Perspective’, POLINARES Working Paper, No. 11.

Christie, E.H. (2012) ‘A Second Life for Natural Gas Demand in Europe?’, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 62–65.

Colgan, J., Keohane, R. and van de Graaf, T. (2011) ‘Institutional Change in the Energy Regime Complex’, paper prepared for the 2011 Political Economy of International Organizations Meeting, Zurich: 27–29 January 2011. Available Online at: [http://147.142.190.246/joomla/peio/files2011/papers/Colgan,%20Keohane,%20Van%20de%20Graaf%2021.10.2010.pdf], accessed on 4 November 2011.

Cornell, S. and Nilsson, N. (eds) (2008) Europe’s Energy Security: Gazprom’s Dominance and Caspian Supply Alternatives. Washington: CACI and SRSP.

Dannreuther, R. (2007) International Security: The Contemporary Agenda. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Dannreuther, R. (2010a) ‘The Analytical Framework’, POLINARES Working Paper, No. 2.

Dannreuther, R. (2010b) ‘International Relations Theories: Energy, Minerals and Conflict, POLINARES Working Paper, No. 8.

Daojiong, Z. (2006) ‘China’s Energy Security: Domestic and International Issues’, Survival, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 179–190.

De Jong, J. (2011) ‘A New EU Gas Security of Supply Architecture’, A Report on the Workshop Organized by CIEP in The Hague on 7–8 July 2011, Clingendael – The Hague, Netherlands. Available Online at: [http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2012/201201_ciep_report_ jjong_gas_architecture.pdf], accessed on 12 December 2011.

Dokos, T. (2011) ‘Tension in Eastern Mediterranean: The Geopolitical Quadrangle Greece–Cyprus–Turkey–Israel’, ELIAMEP Working Paper, No. 23.

Goldthau, A. and Witte, J.M. (2010) ‘The Role of Rules and Institutions in Global Energy: An Introduction’, in Goldthau, A. and Witte, J.M. (eds), Global Energy Governance: The New Rules of the Game. Berlin: Global Public Policy Institute, pp. 1–23.

Haghighi, S. (2007) Energy Security: The External Legal Relations of the European Union with Major Oil- and Gas-Supplying Countries. Portland: Hart Publishing.

Hayes, M. and Victor, D. (2006) ‘Politics, Markets and the Shift to Gas: Insights from the Seven Historical Case Studies’, in Victor, D., Jaffe, A. and Hayes, M. (eds), Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 319–353.

Heraclides, A. (2010) The Greek–Turkish Conflict in the Aegean. Imagined Enemies. London: Palgrave McMillan.

Hill, C. (2003) The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

International Crisis Group (2012), ‘Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power A New Dialogue?’, Europe Report, No. 216 (2 April 2012), pp. 1–26.

Kaye, S. (2011) Joint Development in the Timor Sea Faculty of Law, The University of Western Australia, Available Online at: [http://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Session-7-Stuart-Kaye-Timor-Sea-Presentation-1-pdf.pdf], accessed on 2 May 2012.

Klare, M. (2002) Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict. New York: A Metropolitan/Owl Book.

Klare, M. (2008) Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet. The New Geopolitics of Energy. New York: Metropolitan Books.

Manners, I. (2002) ‘Normative Power Europe: A Contradiction in Terms?’, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 235–258.

Manners, I. (2006) ‘Normative Power Europe: A Theory’, paper presented at the workshop Beyond Self- Perception: How ‘Normative’ is the EU’s Mediterranean Policy? The Case of Judicial and Political Reforms. Florence: European University Institute.

McGrew, A. (2008) ‘Globalization and Global Politics’, in Baylis, J., Smith, S. and Owens, P. (eds), The Globalization of World Politics. An Introduction to International Relations, 4th edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 14–34.

Müller-Kraenner, S. (2008) Energy Security, 3rd edition. London: Earthscan.

Nivola, P. and Carter, E. (2010) ‘Making Sense of “Energy Independence”’, in Pascual, C. and Elkind, J. (eds), Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategies and Implications. Washington: The Brookings Institution, pp. 105–118.

Nye, J. (2003) Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, 4th edition. New York: Longman.

Ong, D. (1999) ‘Joint Development of Common Offshore Oil and Gas Deposits: “Mere” State Practice or Customary International Law?’, The American Journal of International Law, Vol. 93, No. 4, pp. 771–804.

Pike, W. (2011) ‘Gas Everywhere’, World Oil, Energy Issues, November, p. 15.

Proedrou. F. (2012) EU Energy Security in the Gas Sector. Evolving Dynamics, Policy Dilemmas and Prospects. London: Ashgate.

Tocchi, N. (2008) ‘Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners’, in Tocchi, N. (ed.), Who Is a Normative Foreign Policy Actor? The European Union and Its Global Partners. Brussels: CEPS, pp. 1–23.

Verrastro, F. and Ladislaw, S. (2007) ‘Providing Energy Security in an Interdependent World’, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 95–104.

Weijermars, R. (2011) ‘Strategy Implications of World Gas Market Dynamics’, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 66–70.

Yergin, D. (2006) ‘Ensuring Energy Security’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 2, pp. 69–82.
Section
Articles