##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

Direnç Kanol

Abstract

Both the 2011 parliamentary election and the 2013 presidential election in the Republic of Cyprus produced the lowest levels of voter turnout. This obliges the researchers concerned with democratic legitimacy to dig into the political psychology literature and combine it with empirical analysis to understand who votes in the Republic of Cyprus, who does not, and why. Only then can we expound on the possible explanations for declining voter turnout. The results in this paper show that party identification is an important determinant of voter turnout. The author argues that the recent decline in party identification might be the main cause of falling voter turnout. Results also suggest that younger people’s abstention rates are increasing over time. It is debated here that surveys should be repeated periodically and panel data should be gathered in order to overcome the problem with spurious relationships and explain why voter turnout is dwindling. 

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

electoral participation, generational change, party identification, Republic of Cyprus, voter turnout

References
Abramson, P.R. and Aldrich. J.H. (1982) ‘The Decline of Electoral Participation in America’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 76, No. 3, pp. 502–521.

Almond, G.A. and Verba, S. (1963) The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Blais, A. (2000) To Vote or Not To Vote? The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

Blais, A. (2006) ‘What Affects Voter Turnout?’, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 111–125.

Blais, A., Gidengil, E. and Nevitte, N. (2004) ‘Where Does Turnout Decline Come From?’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 221–236.

Blais, A. and Rubenson, D. (2013) ‘The Source of Turnout Decline: New Values or New Contexts?’, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 95–117.

Bobo, L. and Gilliam, F.D. (1990) ‘Race, Socio-political Participation, and Black Empowerment’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 377–393.

Boyd, R.W. (1981) ‘Decline of US Voter Turnout’, American Politics Quarterly, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 133–160.

Bratton, M., Chu, Y-H. and Lagos, M. (2010) ‘Who Votes? Implication for New Democracies’, Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 107–136.

Campbell, A., Converse, P.E., Miller, W.E. and Stokes, D.E. (1960) The American Voter. Chicago: Chicago University Press.

Charalambous, G. (2007) ‘The Strongest Communists in Europe: Accounting for AKEL’s Electoral Success’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 425–456.

Citrin, J. (1974) ‘Comment: The Political Relevance of Trust in Government’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 973–988.

Clarke, H.D., Sanders, D., Marianne, S.C. and Whiteley, P. (2004) Political Choice in Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cox, M. (2003) ‘When Trust Matters: Explaining Differences in Voter Turnout’, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 757–770.

Crewe, I. (1981) ‘Electoral Participation’, in Butler, D., Penniman, H.R. and Ranney, A. (eds), Democracy at the Polls: A Comparative Study of Competitive National Elections. Washington/London: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy, pp. 216–262.

Crewe, I., Fox, T. and Alt, J. (1977) ‘Non-voting in British General Elections 1966 – October 1974’, in Crouch, C. (ed.), British Political Sociology Yearbook: Vol. III, Political Participation. London: Croom Helm, pp. 38–109.

Dalton, R.J. (1984) ‘Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies’, The Journal of Politics, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 264–284.

Dalton, R.J. (2000) ‘The Decline of Party Identifications’, in Dalton, R.J. and Wattenberg, M.P. (eds), Parties without Partisans, Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 19–36.

Dawson, M. (1994) Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African–American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Delaney, J.T., Masters, M.F. and Schwochau, S. (1988) ‘Unionism and Voter Turnout’, Journal of Labour Research, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 221–236.

Dunphy, R. and Bale, T. (2007) ‘Red Flag Still Flying?: Explaining AKEL – Cyprus’ Communist Anomaly’, Party Politics, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 287–304.

ESS Round 3: European Social Survey Round 3 Data (2006) Data file edition 3.4. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data.

ESS Round 4: European Social Survey Round 4 Data (2008) Data file edition 4.1. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data.

ESS Round 5: European Social Survey Round 5 Data (2010) Data file edition 3.0. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data.

Franklin, M.N. (2004) Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Franklin, M.N., Lyons, P. and Marsh, M. (2004) ‘Generational Basis of Turnout Decline in Established Democracies’, Acta Politica, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 115–151.

Freedman, P., Franz, M. and Goldstein, K. (2004) ‘Campaign Advertising and Democratic Ctizenship’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 723–741.

Gallego, A. (2009) ‘Where Else Does Turnout Decline Come From? Education, Age, Generation and Period Effects in Three European Countries’, Scandinavian Political Studies, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 23–44.

Gidengil, E., Blais, A., Nevitte, N. and Nadeau, R. (2003) ‘Turned off or Tuned out? Youth Participation in Politics’, Electoral Insight, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 9–14.

Heath, O. (2007) ‘Explaining Turnout Decline in Britain, 1964–2005: Party Identification and the Political Context’, Political Behavior, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 493–516.

Heath, A., Jowell, R. and Curtice, J. (1985) How Britain Votes. Oxford: Pergamon Press.

Hout, M. and Knock, D. (1975) ‘Change in Voting Turnout, 1952–1972’, The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 52–68.

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance [online]. Voter Turnout (Cyprus). Available at: [http://www.idea.int/vt/country_view.cfm?CountryCode=CY], accessed on 15 June 2011.

ISSP Research Group (2012): International Social Survey Programme: Citizenship – ISSP 2004. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA3950 Data file Version 1.3.0, doi:10.4232/1.11372.

Jankowski, T.B. and Strate, J.M. (1995) ‘Modes of Participation over the Adult Life Span’, Political Behavior, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 89–106.

Johnston, R.J., Matthews, S. and Bittner, A. (2007) ‘Turnout and the Party System in Canada, 1988–2004’, Electoral Studies, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 735–745.

Kimberlee, R.H. (2002) ‘Why Don’t British Young People Vote at General Elections?’, Journal of Youth Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 85–98.

Kleppner, P. (1982) Who Voted?: The Dynamics of Electoral Turnout, 1870–1980. New York: Praeger Publishers.

Konzelmann, L., Wagner, C. and Rattinger, H. (2012) ‘Turnout in Germany in the Course of Time: Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Electoral Turnout from 1953 to 2049’, Electoral Studies, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 50–261.

Lassen, D.D. (2005) ‘The Effect of Information on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 103–118.

Levine, P. and Lopez, M.H. (2002) Youth Voter Turnout Has Declined, By Any Measure. Report from The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), College Park, MD.

Lipset, S.M. (1981) Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Lopez, M.H., Kirby, E. and Sagoff, J. (2005) The Youth Vote 2004. Fact Sheet. University of Maryland: Center for Information & Research on Civic Engagement.

Lyons, W. and Alexander, R. (2000) ‘A Tale of Two Electorates: Generational Replacement and the Decline of Voting in Presidential Elections’, Journal of Politics, Vol. 62, No. 4, pp. 1014–1034.

Martikainen, P., Martikainen, T. and Wass, H. (2005) ‘The Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on Voter Turnout in Finland: A Register-based Study of 2.0 Million Voters’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 645–669.

Miller, A.H., Goldenberg, E.N. and Erbing, L. (1979) ‘Type-set Politics: Impact of Newspapers on Public Confidence’, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 75, No. 1, pp. 67–68.

Miller, W.E. (1980) ‘Disinterest, Disaffection and Participation in Presidential Politics’, Political Behavior, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 7–32.

Miller, W.E. (1992) ‘The Puzzle Transformed: Explaining Declining Turnout’, Political Behavior, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 1–43.

Narud, H.M. and Valens, H. (1996) ‘Decline of Electoral Turnout: The Case of Norway’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 235–256.

Nie, N., Junn, J. and Stehlik-Barry, K. (1996) Education and Democratic Citizenship in America. London: University of Chicago Press.

Pammett, J.H. and LeDuc, L. (2003) ‘Confronting the Problem of Declining Voter Turnout among Youth’, Electoral Insight, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 3–8.

Pattie, C. and Johnston, R. (1998) ‘Voter Turnout at the British General Election of 1992: Rational Choice, Social Standing or Political Efficacy?’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 263–283.

Phelps, E. (2004) ‘Young Citizens and Changing Electoral Turnout, 1964–2001’, The Political Quarterly, Vol. 75, No. 3, pp. 238–248.

Phelps, E. (2006) Young Adults and Electoral Turnout in Britain: Towards a Generational Model of Political Participation. Sussex: Sussex European Institute.

Ragsdale, L. and Rusk, J.G. (1993) ‘Who are Nonvoters? Profiles from the 1990 Senate Elections’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 721–746.

Rose, R. (1974) Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook. New York: The Free Press.

Rosenstone, S.J. and Hansen, J.M. (1993) Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan Publishing.
Sabucedo, J.M. and Cramer, D. (1991) ‘Sociological and Psychological Predictors of Voting in Great Britain’, Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 131, No. 5, pp. 647–654.

Schmitt, H. and Holmberg, S. (1995) ‘Political Parties in Decline?’, in Klingemann, H.D. and Fuchs, D. (eds), Citizens and the State. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 95–134.

Shaffer, S. (1981) ‘A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960–1976’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 68–95.

Shingles, R.D. (1981) ‘Black Consciousness and Political Participation: The Missing Link’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 75, No. 1, pp. 76–91.

Shively, W.P. (1979) ‘The Development of Party Identification among Adults: Exploration of a Functional Model’, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 73, No. 4, pp. 1039–1054.

Smets, K. (2012) ‘A Widening Generational Divide? The Age Gap in Voter Turnout through Time and Space’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 407–430.

Stein, R.M., Leighley, J. and Owens, C. (2005) Who Votes, Who Doesn’t, Why and, What Can Be Done? A Report to the Federal Commission on Electoral Reform.

Strate, J.M., Parrish, C.J., Elder, C.D. and Ford, C. (1989) ‘Life Span Civic Development and Voting Participation’, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 83, No. 2, pp. 443–464.

Teixeira, R.A. (1992) The Disappearing American Voter. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution.

Timpone, R.J. (1998) ‘Structure, Behaviour and Voter Turnout in the United States’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 145–158.

Uhlaner, C.J. (1989) ‘Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 390–422.

Van Der Eijk, C. and Oppenhuis, E. (1990) ‘Turnout and Second Order Effects in the European Elections of June 1989: Evidence from the Netherlands’, Acta Politica, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 76–94.

Van Egmond, M. (2003) Rain Falls On All of Us (But Some Manage To Get More Wet Than Others): Political Context and Electoral Participation. Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers.

Van Egmond, M., De Graaf, N.D. and Van Der Eijk, C. (1998) ‘Electoral Participation in the Netherlands: Individual and Contextual Influences’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 281–300.

Vasilara, M. and Piaton, G. (2007) ‘The Role of Civil Society in Cyprus’, The Cyprus Review, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 107–121.

Verba, S. and Nie, N.H. (1972) Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. New York: Harper and Row.

Verba, S., Schlozman, K.L. and Brady, H.E. (1995) Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Vowles, J. (2002) ‘Offsetting the PR Effect? Party Mobilization and Turnout Decline in New Zealand, 1996–99’, Party Politics, Vol. 8, No. 5, pp. 587–605.

Wattenberg, M.P. (2000) ‘The Decline of Party Mobilization’, in Dalton, R.J. and Wattenberg, M.P. (eds), Parties without Partisans, Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 64–78.

Wattenberg, M.P. (2002) Where Have All the Voters Gone? Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.

Wolfinger, R.E. and Rosenstone, S.J. (1980) Who Votes? Binghamton: Yale University Press.
Section
Articles

How to Cite

“To Vote or Not to Vote? Declining Voter Turnout in the Republic of Cyprus”. 2017. Cyprus Review 25 (2): 59-72. https://cyprusreview.org/index.php/cr/article/view/108.